Rangers should re-sign Hamilton
Josh Hamilton is in his walk year with the Texas Rangers. The big question is should the Rangers resign him?
I answer that question with a resounding “Hell yes, they should resign him.”
Let’s look at his numbers so far this season, and if he stays on the pace he is on, what his numbers could potentially be. We are just shy of one-fifth of the way through 2012. Hamilton is hitting .395 with 15 homers, 38 RBI, 45 hits, and has has scored 26 runs. Of his 45 hits, 19 are for extra bases, and only four of thouse are doubles.
Hamilton is on pace to get around 570 at-bats this year. If he stays in the groove he is in, these are the numbers that we could be looking at at the end of the year: 225 hits, 130 runs, 190 RBI and 70 home runs. Now, is it realistic to believe he will stay this hot? No, its not. But he has been in the league for more than six years, and pitchers haven’t found a way to get him out consistantly.
The question that keeps popping up is, “Should he get Pujols and Fielder money?” I say,”Absolutely.” Hamilton has a knock on him for being often injured. There is a reason for that . He is 6-4, 240 pounds, and he plays the game like he is 5-10 and 180 pounds — meaning that he slides head first into bases and sells out on every play in the outfield to make the catch.
There are things in his game he needs to change. I have told him this to his face. The biggest thing being sliding head first into bases. He is too big to be the guy taking the pounding on a slide. The game has middle infielders whowill drop a knee down to take the bag away, that can lead to broken fingers, hands and wrists. Also the play that he broke his shoulder on last year was a play at the plate where he slid head first. When you are as big as he is, you should be the one issuing the pain. Especialy sliding into home. If he slides feet first, there are not a lot of fielders who are going to drop a knee on him at that size. I don’t know if you have noticed on TV, but Hamilton has clown feet. He wears a size 14 or 15 shoe! So I think he can change some things that are instinctual to him right now that will help keep him healthy and on the field.
The other part of this is his history. That shouldn’t be a concern to the Rangers. That can all be addressed in the verbage of the contract. Having spoken to Josh many times and having close friends who have dealt with the same kinds of demons he has dealt with, I believe that Josh and his spiritual beliefs will keep him on the path he needs to stay on.
Lastly, before Josh Hamilton was a Ranger, there were no World Series and Texas was basically a football-only state. That is not the case anymore. What he means to this team from a marketing standpoint is huge. He made a huge name for himself with his story, and made the Rangers a team that is a very close team in the clubhouse, and a team that is getting more recognition than the Dallas Cowboys nationally. It all adds up to this: sign Josh Hamilton before someone else comes along and takes him. Because that line will be long and distinguished!
April surprises
We have gotten through the first month of the 2012 season. Every season will have its surprises. These are my Top 5 Surprises of 2012 thus far, starting from Number 5 and moving toward what I think is the biggest surprise:
#5 The Kansas City Royals. After finishing 2011 strong, and the young talent that they brought up to the Majors having the success they had, I myself thought they would be a team that would be toward the top of the AL Central. Not a half-game out of last in the division through the first month. Young teams have to learn to win together and weather bad streaks. They had a 12-game losing streak in April, but I had the chance to talk to Eric Hosmer and they are still a positive bunch.
#4 The Baltimore Orioles were 14-9 in the month of April and sit in second place in the very tough AL East. Buck Showalter has them playing good baseball. The big question with this team is whether they can pitch well enough over the next five months to stay in the race. But right now they are ahead of both New York and Boston.
#3 the Los Angeles Dodgers. They were 16-7 in April and sit atop the NL West with a four-game lead in the division. This is a surprise because no one thought they would have enough pitching to compete with Arizona. This has a lot to do with two of their big bats getting off to great starts. Matt Kemp has picked up where he left off last year. I am not a big believer in batting average, unless there is damage as a result of that average. Well Kemp is hitting .409, has scored 25 runs, driven in 25 runs, hit 12 home runs and has a .485 OBP. In 88 at-bats. The only bad thing is, he only has two stolen bases. The really scary part of all of this offense in LA is that the guy hitting behind Kemp in the order — Andre Ethier — has six home runs. Ethier is only hitting .289 and he has 27 RBI already. That is hard to do, have guys that hitting next to each other in the lineup and they are 1-2 in the league in RBI.
#2 the Los Angeles Angels. One of the two teams in the off season that spent a ton of money, they landed the biggest free agent out there this winter and probably the best free agent pitcher (C.J. Wilson). Yet they sit in last place in the AL West. A big part of this is the fact that their bullpen has had nine save opportunities and has blown six of them. I expect they will be very active at the Trade Deadline to find a closer, if they don’t do it sooner. Many people picked them to win the AL West this year. I still felt the Rangers were the best team in that division. Through the month of April, the Angels sat eight games behind Texas.
This leads me right to the biggest surprise in all of baseball:
#1 Albert Pujols does not have a home run yet. This is mind-blowing to me. I know its a new league and there is an adjustment period. But anyone that knows this game at all would have figured that The King would have run into at least one during the first month. He is hitting .209 with eight doubles and 5 RBI! If we look at Prince Fielder, he is not off to a great start with his new team, the Tigers. He is hitting .294 with three home runs and 12 RBI, but he is hitting behind Miguel Cabrera, who has 21 RBI. So Cabrera is driving in runs, limiting Prince’s RBI chances. Let’s put this in terms of how significant Pujols’ start is. You think of power and RBI guys from the National League the last few years, and you think Pujols, Fielder and Ryan Howard. Albert has five more RBI than Howard, the same amount of home runs (zero), and Ryan Howard hasn’t played a game or had an at-bat yet in Philly, due to injury. Will this last for The King? No, it won’t. But hands down it is the biggest surprise in all of baseball through the month of April!
Rangers looking set to repeat
Through the first 16 games, it looks like the the American League could end up the same way that it did the last two years: with the Texas Rangers representing the league in the World Series.
Granted, it is way too early to say they are a lock. But at 13-3, they already hold a seven-game lead on the Angels — the team that was supposed to take the West from the Rangers this year.
The Angels went out and signed the best hitter in the game — Albert Pujols. They also signed C.J. Wilson away from the Rangers. The biggest move the Rangers made was to sign Yu Darvish. They also signed Joe Nathan as their closer and moved Neftali Feliz into the rotation. All of them have performed well. Nathan — two years removed from his Tommy John surgery — has had some tightrope saves, but is regaining the form that made him one of the top five closers in the game before his injury. Feliz has been outstanding in the rotation. Darvish is starting to settle in. The rest of the rotation has been very good. Colby Lewis is throwing really well, as are Derek Holland and Matt Harrison.
But let’s get to the heart of this team. The lineup is deadly. Josh Hamilton is hitting over .400. So is Michael Young. There is not a place in this lineup for the opposing pitcher to take a breath. Hamilton has seven home runs and 17 RBI in 16 games. When your seven hole hitter (Mike Napoli) had 30 home runs last year, you have a stout line up. Their leadoff hitter (Ian Kinsler) had 32 home runs last year. When you have that kind of offense, it takes so much pressure off of the starting rotation. They know they don’t have to be perfect. They just have to keep the team in the game.
The team I picked to win the World Series this year was Detroit. They have started well, but the injury to Doug Fister has hurt them. They will still win the Central, but for them to reach the Series they will have to get Fister back healthy.
Right now there is not another team in either league that is even close to as balanced as the Rangers are. If the Angels expect to give them a run, they’d better start soon. Or the Rangers will put so much distance between them that they won’t be able to make it up.
Building from the back
Over the last few years general managers have started building their pitching staffs from the closer back. Why?
Kevin Towers I think was really the first GM to start doing this when he was the GM of the Padres. It proved to be effective. He had Trevor Hoffman then Heath Bell as his closers, and Mike Adams and Luke Gregerson as his 7th and 8th innning guys. If the Padres could get the game to the 7th, it was pretty much over.
Then Towers took over as GM of the Diamondbacks, where Kirk Gibson had been named interim manager after the firing of A.J. Hinch. The first thing Towers did was remove the interim tag from Gibson’s title, and hired him to manage the club. Then he hired a coaching staff that was what I would call old school. Adding Don Baylor and Alan Trammell, to go along with the coaches that were there: Matt Williams, Charles Nagy… guys that fit the mold of what Towers and Gibson wanted. Hard-nosed, play hard until the final out kind of guys that could teach the young talent on this team how to win.
Then in the winter of 2010, after having a bullpen that blew 27 save opportunities in 2010, he went to work on his bullpen. The two big names were J.J. Putz and David Hernandez. It proved to work and work well. They won the division in 2011.
After watching the first series of the season so far this season, it is abundantly clear that bullpens have to be strong, if you want to have any chance of winning.
I live in the Philly area, so being off work this weekend and being able to see the Phillies play every game on local TV, I saw how important the pen is. The three starters for the Phillies in the series against the Pirates went a total of 20 innings and gave up two runs. They lost the series two games to one. The one game they won, Jonathan Papelbon got the save in a 1-0 win.
But if we look at the starting pitching all over the game, it has been very good. Meanwhile, there have been some bullpens that have imploded.
In 2011, starters’ ERA at this point of the season was 4.06. So far in 2012 it is 3.66, just shy of a half a run lower than last year. Yet relievers’ ERA at this point in the season last year was 3.69, and this year it has risen to 3.88.
Big-name closers have blown save opps already this year: Heath Bell, Jose Valverde, and Mariano Rivera. Chris Perez of the Indians blew his first save opportunity this year, then he converted his second one, giving him 2.2 innings pitched in their first three games. That is only a third of an inning less than he threw all spring. I can’t understand how you can give a closer the ball in a save situation on Opening Day when he has only thrown three innings all spring to get ready for the season.
So anyone out there who questions why teams are building their staffs from the closer back and putting so much emphasis on their bullpen talent. The very first series of the year should explain it. Boston has two blown saves already. The Cubs have 2 blown saves already. The bullpen has become extremely important in the game. There is nothing that will demoralize a team faster than an offense busting their butts for eight innings to get a lead, only to lose it in the 9th.
D-backs will win National League pennant
It’s time for my National League predictions.
I’ll start with the East where teams have made some big splashes with trades and free agency.
The Marlins landed Jose Reyes, Heath Bell, and Mark Buerhle, each a very good addition, not to mention new manager Ozzie Guillen. On paper, the Marlins are better than they have been in a long time. But beware: You can buy players, but you can’t buy a team. They will be better, but I don’t think they will learn to play as a team this year. I see a third-place finish for the Marlins.
You can always count on the Braves to compete. But the Braves have too many question marks with starting pitchers Tim Hudson, Jair Jurrjens and Tommy Hanson coming off injuries. The bullpen is great, but with health questions in the rotation and with Chipper Jones, I don’t see them finishing higher than fourth ahead of the Mets, who are very young and very far away from being ready to compete.
That brings us to the two teams that will fight to win this division – Philadelphia and Washington. The Nationals added two very good starters to their rotation in Gio Gonzalez and Edwin Jackson. And don’t forget about the return of Stephen Strasburg, albeit on an innings limit. The Nats have a very solid lineup, and their bullpen is stronger with the addition of Brad Lidge. The Nats will finish second.
The Phillies have the best starting rotation, and they added Jonathan Papelbon as their closer. The Phillies will have to play without Ryan Howard for at least the first month of the season, and the lineup is not as feared as it once was. It won’t be as easy as last year, but the Phillies will win the East.
On to the Central: St. Louis lost Albert Pujols and Milwaukee lost Prince Fielder. Cincinnati general manager Walt Jocketty saw that as a chance to pounce, adding starter Mat Latos and closer Ryan Madson. I was leaning toward the Reds until it was discovered that Madson needed Tommy John surgery. Now, I think St. Louis will win the Central.
The defending NL West champion Dbacks learned how to win last year, and they’ll be just as good this year. Angel Pagan and Melky Cabrera are significant additions for the Giants, who also get Buster Posey back to help a bad offense from last year. The Giants have a very good rotation, but I don’t think this team has enough power to take the pressure off the rotation.
The Dodgers have the Cy Young winner from last year in Clayton Kershaw and arguably the MVP runner-up Matt Kemp, but I don’t think the rest of the team is proven enough to compete for the division title. Arizona will repeat as champs.
I see Washington and Milwaukee meeting in the one-game playoff, with the Nats advancing to play the Phillies in the Division Series. The Phillies have a big advantage in experience and will win this series, while Justin Upton (above/Getty pic) and the Arizona Diamondbacks beat St. Louis in the other NLDS.
I’m going out on a limb and saying Arizona beats Philly in the NLCS and advances to the World Series.
Prediction: Tigers go to the World Series
We’ve reached that point in the year when I attempt to forecast which teams will be division winners. I’ll start with the American League.
Of all the moves that were made during the offseason, three have the potential to impact the chase for the AL pennant.
The obvious one is Albert Pujols to the Angels. And then there’s Prince Fielder signing with the Tigers, who are leaps and bounds ahead of the other teams in the AL Central. The midseason addition of Doug Fister to their rotation proved to be the best move made at last year’s trade deadline. Fister has a change to be a 20-game winner, with a full-year in Detroit and a lineup that will score runs in bunches. And I think AL MVP and Cy Young Award winner Justin Verlander may be better this year than in 2011.
Back to those impact moves: If Yu Darvish can stay healthy, the Rangers should make another trip to the postseason. Keep in mind that we have the additional Wild Card team this year, so here is how I see the AL shaking out:
I like Rangers over Angels in the West, and I the Yankees will rise to the top of the East while Detroit wins the Central in a runaway.
As for the Wild Cards, I’ve got the Angels and Red Sox playing the one-game playoff for the chance to advance to the Division Series. I have the Angels winning that game, which means they will have to play Detroit in the DS. Detroit will have the best regular-season record but, this year, that will mean playing the first two games on the road in Anaheim. Regardless, I still see the Tigers winning that series.
That means Texas and New York would play the other series, and I’d take the Rangers in that one, setting up a rematch of last year’s ALCS between the Rangers and Tigers. Adding Prince to the lineup gives the Tigers the edge and, unlike last season, Detroit advances to the World Series.
Orioles should follow Rays model
Should the Orioles be using the Rays as a model for handling young players? I ask this question based on the renewed contract of catcher and “face of their organization” Matt Wieters.
Tampa has in recent history given its young and potential superstars long-term deals early in their careers. Evan Longoria, and most recently Matt Moore. This strategy has proven effective not only in the sense that the organization is showing confidence in them, but it also has proven to save the club money when they buy out some arbitration years.
What happened in Baltimore is why the Orioles face a long road out of the basement in the American League East. Wieters came to the Majors with huge expectations. While he hasn’t quite lived up to the hype, he hasn’t fallen on his face either. In 2009, he played in 96 games , hit .288 with nine home runs and had 43 RBIs. In 2010, he played in 130 games, batting .249 with 11 home runs and 55 RBIs. Last season, Weiters played in played in 139 games and hit.262 with 22 home runs and 69 RBIs.
Defensively he was a Gold Glove winner and ranked second among qualifying catchers in base runners caught stealing at 37 percent in 2011. His numbers are pretty impressive. How impressive were they to the Baltimore front office? They renewed his contract at $500,000, $20,000 above league minimum.
I’m sorry, but if I’m trying to build an organization basically from scratch, the first thing I’m going to do is treat the players at least fairly, especially when you are dealing with the catcher that is going to be handling your young pitchers and taking the biggest beating on the field on a daily basis.
I was 21 years old when I came to the Big Leagues back in 1986, and I got a $60,000 raise after my rookie year. That was 25 years ago. And I was a set up man in the bullpen.
Tampa has put the blueprint out there on how to build a small market team and make it successful. It is up to other organizations to take notice and maybe follow suit. I’m sure Matt Wieters will be professional and do his job, but you can’t tell me that he feels respected by his organization.
There are many players who are way overpaid, but in this case — even if they had contract talks and the two parties were way apart on a number — the front office can renew him at any number they want. To renew him at $500,000 is disrespectful when there will be rookies on that team who don’t have a single at bat in the Big Leagues making only $20,000 less than the starting catcher, who has two years and 119 days in the Majors. For you Wieters fans, get a good look at him over the next four years, because I see him sprinting out of Baltimore when he becomes a free agent.
Memo to Scott Boras: You work for your clients
About six weeks ago, I asked the question, Is Baseball growing tired of Scott Boras?
I think the answer is yes, and I have heard from people in the game that some teams won’t deal with him at all. If you are an agent for a player, there simply can’t be teams that are unwilling to deal with you. As an agent, you are supposed to provide your client the best possible representation, and you can’t do that if, by your reputation, you are eliminating options for your client.
Boras had three of the top free agents in this year’s crop in Prince Fielder, Edwin Jackson and Ryan Madson. Fielder got eight years, $214 million from Detroit. Now if you look at Fielder’s power numbers, they are comparable to those of Albert Pujols, yet Prince signed a deal that is two years shorter and $40 million lighter than the one Pujols signed. And Prince is four years younger.
Jackson is a 28-year-old pitcher who makes every start and throws 200 innings a year, capable of reaching 98 mph on a radar gun. Considering the premium on starting pitching, it’s a joke that Jackson, who has no history of injury, ended up with a one-year deal.
But the deal that tells me teams are tired of Boras is the Madson deal. Madson signed a one-year deal with the Reds for $8.5 mil. The Phillies reportedly made a four-year $44 million deal that was pulled back. What wasn’t reported was that the Phillies came back with a three-year deal for $33.mil, which, being a good friend of Madson’s, I know for a fact he would have signed. He wanted to stay in Philly. He was happy there and didn’t want to go anywhere. But Ryan didn’t even get the chance to accept the deal because his agent turned it down without even consulting him.
Where Boras is getting confused is that the players he represents don’t work for him; he works for them. So, ultimately he cost Madson $24.5 mil. I have no doubt that Ryan will go out and have another good year this year. But let’s look at a worst-case scenario. What if he gets injured? That $24.5 million would be a really big piece of mind that Madson was never given the opportunity to accept, because his agent felt he had the right to speak for his client without consulting him. I write this based on what was told to me directly by Madson.
Agents are supposed to create the biggest pool of bidders they can. They are not supposed to limit the size of the pool because general managers would rather pass on a player than deal with his agent. An agent is paid to provide a service, but Scott Boras is doing his clients a disservice. For an agent to turn down a deal without consulting his “EMPLOYER” – that is right, Mr. Boras. You are an employee of the players you represent. It is my opinion that prince could have gotten a better, longer deal if he had represented himself.
This is my opinion, so people can take it for what it’s worth. Had Madson, Jackson and even Fielder had an agent that was liked or, more importantly respected, by the GMs in the game, each of them would have ended up with better deals than they got. I know one for a fact. Madson would have signed a three-year deal for $33 million. Instead he got a one-year deal for $8.5 million. I ain’t the sharpest tool in the shed, but I can count like hell. $33 million is way better than $8.5 million.
Recent Comments